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Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part IV)

by Senior Analyst Talal Kapoor

King Abdallah's attempt at codifying the succession procedure - the "Bay'ah" Commission - was doomed from the start. The Bay'ah was composed of a group representing the most senior descendants of the Kingdom's founder, Ibn Saud, who were to choose and validate the monarch's heir, but it suffered from one fatal flaw: since it was never intended to apply to the crown prince at the time (Sultan), there was no guarantee that he would not simply cast the whole apparatus aside in favor of something else, or even choose his own successor on a whim. Despite the risk of an end-run around the formal framework, however, Abdallah's proposal was significant in establishing the principle that in future succession issues, the established precedent should be followed - any contender for the throne looking to bypass the Bay'ah from this point on risked opening a deep rift within the ranks of the family. Still, it was not a complete solution to an issue that had vexed the royals for generations.

When Salman took over upon Abdallah's death in 2015, he immediately replaced then-crown prince Muqrin with Muhammad bin Nayif (known as MbN) and elevated his own son Muhammad (MbS) to prominence. Another of the shortcomings of the Baya'h was now revealed - since it was largely accepted that the serving king's selection of heir (in the role of crown prince) would follow him upon the throne, he was free to pick and choose at will, rejecting the decision of his predecessor (and the Bay'ah) and thus rendering the committee frivolous. Since the body's decision did not need to be unanimous (as indeed it was not when MbS himself moved into Muqrin's slot in June 2017, after an extraordinary palace coup), it looked set to become nothing more than a rubber stamp for the king's discretion. Furthermore, it was obvious that various kinds of pressure could be applied to the Bay'ah's individual members, and retaliation taken in the case of those princes set against to the proposed candidate. And finally, as the original members passed on, with their sons or representatives taking their place, the new composition had correspondingly less influence, connection with, or stake in the evolving dynamic. As power naturally coalesced in an upper echelon rife with constant change, a committee drawn from disparate members of the original ruling branch seemed at odds with a structure that had less and less practical relevance to those now ostensibly involved in the succession process.

MbS immediately set about flexing his muscles, disorienting those who believed he would play by the rules that the royal family had followed, implicitly or otherwise. His ruthlessness was on full display when he deposed MbN in a 2017 shake-up motivated at least in part by a belief that his uncle was conspiring against him. The crown prince and Interior Minister was caught completely off guard - though warned of the ambition and guile of MbS by friends both inside and outside the Kingdom, he ignored their advice, while at the same time struggling with fatigue, chronic medical issues and a likely addiction to painkillers, making him a relatively easy target. MbN was forced into a humiliating obeisance (whilst his nephew made a public show of deference) and then disappeared from view. Eventually, MbS ordered his arrest in March 2020.

Not long after, the newly installed crown prince launched a "crackdown", which saw hundreds of princes and prominent leaders held at the luxurious Ritz-Carlton. Seeming more like a shakedown in retrospect, as most were later released once they had turned over their fortunes to the government in exchange for freedom, the purge nonetheless seemed designed to eliminate potential rivals. MbS primarily targeted Abdallah's son Mit'ab, head of the National Guard and the one with perhaps the most credible claim to the throne, if it came down to it. His three brothers, and any considered loyal to the family's Shammar branch, were also held.

Related articles: Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part III)
Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part II)
Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part I)
Page 2: going it alone?