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Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part III)

by Senior Analyst Talal Kapoor

The Kingdom's founder, Ibn Saud, had left his successors with no detailed roadmap for navigating the future transfer of power. The vague hope that his sons would dutifully follow one another in their turn soon collided with the reality that there were, in fact, far too many princes, separated by too great a difference in age. This meant that, assuming a king did not vacate the throne early, his immediate successor would already by an old man by the time he took over, with the same process repeating until the leadership had ossified into what could only be called a gerontocracy. This was the situation Abdallah now faced, having become king on the passing of his half brother Fahd.

The dilemma was not a sudden revelation; in fact, the problem had been kicked into the long grass as the royals grappled with domestic political issues involving intra-family rivalries, in particular the ascendancy of the al-Sudayri branch, of which Fahd and Sultan (then crown prince) were members. Abdallah, as the son of a bedouin woman and without any full brothers to support his position, was isolated, and feared his own reign would be something of an interregnum before a Sudayri revival. His own age and declining health galvanized the search for a solution that would at once ward off that powerful faction and provide a roadmap for future succession, given that previous attempts at formalization of the process were inadequate.

Since the time of Ibn Saud, the circle of power sharing had progressively narrowed, but this reflected the reality that more distant family branches no longer wielded the influence they once did. In the beginning, members of so-called cadet lines such as the Farhan and Mishari had been included in deliberation along with reputed clerics, scholars and merchant families, in recognition of the role such individuals had played in the formation of the state. For example, Ahmad al-Sudayri had been a key general during early military campaigns, and his family was later rewarded with governorships in the eastern province, while the powerful Saud al-Kabir, leader of a disaffected clan and once a rival to the founder's ambitions, had reconciled with the rest of the family, lending legitimacy to the new enterprise, since his branch of the family was technically senior to Ibn Saud's own. Tribal alliances, crucial to the cohesion of the area's fiercely independent regional identities, and ties to the family of the Al al-Shaykh, whose original compact with the Al Saud helped ground the royal claim to rule over the holy places of Makkah and Madinah, were also given pride of place.

But as the Kingdom embraced modernity, with the transition from desert backwater to geopolitical powerhouse taking place almost overnight, a more technocratic bureaucracy arose. The councils and deliberations of the past seemed quaint in the era of OPEC and an American military alliance. Saud had once alienated the family with his rampant nepotism, and yet the sons of the reigning monarch of the time began to feature in more and more prominent positions as time went on. Some of these, like the sons of Faysal, were competent in their own right, but in other cases a prince clearly owed his post to his connections. And since key government jobs allowed the office holder to build patronage networks (and amass wealth), the critical mass gradually shifted to those with experience, gravitas and a support base, which in practice usually meant the sons of already powerful, who were well placed to install them there. By the 1970's, only token representation remained for those not in the direct line from Ibn Saud.

Aside from the risk of further distancing itself from the population, familiar with the freedoms of the West and viewing the royals as an unaccountable, detached elite, the unpredictability of future succession also dissuaded foreign investment. It was imperative to at least give the appearance of having a plan in place.

Related articles: Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part II)
Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part I)
Page 2: preparing for the future, or avoiding conflict?