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Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part IV)

going it alone?

Having removed almost all potential challengers, he began mopping up any remaining opposition, including his uncle Ahmad, once thought immune to the crown prince's depredations due to his relationship to the king (a fairly mild critic of MbS, residing abroad, Ahmad was a full brother to Salman, and the last of the so-called "Sudayri Seven"). With no obstacles in his path, and the Bay'ah rendered moot (a full-scale rejection of MbS is unthinkable at this point, given his unsurpassed power and reach), the succession dynamic has irrevocably changed, with the Kingdom entering uncharted waters. For decades, the question was, how and when to pass the leadership to the younger generation; now the question is, who else but MbS could ever rule?

MbS surrounds himself with those who are willing to indulge his whims and pose little apparent threat. In contrast to earlier iterations of the royal court, the circle of the crown prince is made up of younger, less experienced (but presumably loyal) princes holding key portfolios, while finding room for a few select, experienced and politically useful older half-brothers and uncles loyal to his father. Their number includes heavyweights such as Turki al-Faysal and Oil Minister Abd al-Aziz bin Salman, but also eyebrow-raising choices such as the untested Khalid bin Salman, in charge of day-to-day operations at Defense. In some cases, MbS has facilitated the loyalty of the old guard by elevating their children to plum positions (a notable example is Rima bint Bandar, Ambassador to the US and daughter of former heavyweight Bandar bin Sultan), but the emergent framework has the most important and powerful Saudi institutions devolved to those lacking experience and seniority. Crucially, they also lack "wasta" - the influence, gravitas, and connections required to establish personal networks across a complex and traditionally-oriented society. The absence of threatening ambition seems to have been the only requisite.

MbS sees himself as cast in the mold of his grandfather, the Kingdom's founder, with whom he is proud to share a physical similarity. Ibn Saud, who secured the kingdom violently in a violent time, did not share power, but rather delegated authority and co-opted rivals with a natural political savvy. Although he allied himself with the clerics and the more conservative tribes, through marriage and the extension of privileges, he forcibly put down the Ikhwan when that movement grew too independent and bold, despite their prior military assistance. MbS believes in a similar concept of absolute control at the very top, having no patience with the idea of a broader consensus across the royal family with which his predecessors had ruled.

On the one hand, this frees him from endless internal debate and the sluggish, if not glacial, pace of reform which have plagued the country. The more conservative elements of Saudi society have always dug in their heels against social and cultural changes, to the detriment of the Kingdom's development and appeal to outside business. Fearful of the backlash, previous kings have preferred to tread lightly, even as the country became something of an anomaly in the modern world. MbS, unconstrained, has forcibly dragged the nation into the present. A risktaker like his grandfather Ibn Saud, he seems, with an unshakeable belief in his manifest destiny, not to consider failure as an option.

For all that, the extent of his authoritarianism and growing intolerance for dissent is a new and disturbing feature. While the clerics have been publicly supportive despite a series of reforms that significantly undermines the religious elite's power and influence, they have not lost sight of the original alliance that gave birth to the Kingdom all those centuries ago, nor forgotten the support without which the royals would find it difficult to legitimize their rule. Whether MbS succeeds in his zeal to upend tradition remains to be seen.

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