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Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part III)

preparing for the future, or avoiding conflict?

One of the first means of establishing some predictability was the tacit recognition that the post of Deputy Prime Minister formally designated the "vali al al-ahd", or heir apparent. The position of Second Deputy Prime Minister, which was not required by law, next came to be used as a sort of designator for the next in line to succeed the crown prince. Although there was no assurance this would be realized, it was at least an attempt at stability, avoiding the impression that a monarch could simply appoint his heir on a whim. In reality, the choice of a new king took place behind closed doors, in an opaque process involving the most influential and senior royals, even if the choice was largely unsurprising in the end. So far, the oldest (and presumably most capable) had followed in turn, but it was becoming apparent that there simply was not enough time on the clock to satisfy all the contenders. With a new cadre of immensely powerful princes such as Sultan (Minister of Defense) and Nayif (Interior Minister), it was possible that one might try to corrupt the process and install one of his own offspring as heir, without having gained full family support, thus bypassing the expectation that a brother, rather than a son, would take the baton.

The Basic Law, from the time of Fahd, had tried to codify the succession, but it did not adequately address the issue of exactly how the successor was to be chosen, instead choosing to formalize the choice itself. (As far back as 1996, however, Fahd had floated the idea of a succession committee which would meet upon the death of a king; although the idea was not acted upon, it shows thought was being given to this issue even then.) In contrast, Abdallah's "Bay'ah", or Allegiance, Commission of 2006 was intended to set out the exact manner in which a new monarch was to be selected, and disallow any deviation from this new process. The primary motivation may have been to ensure that no parallel line of succession came into being (with a careful eye on the al-Sudayri branch), but the question of how to pass along leadership to the next generation was also coming to the fore. So far, no adequate mechanism had even been discussed for that eventual scenario. Furthermore, Abdallah wanted to respect existing norms by ensuring that a consensus candidate would emerge, and institutionalize the family decision making process by giving different branches a say in the selection of future kings.

The 34-member Bay'ah was composed of the 15 surviving sons of Ibn Saud (not including the king and crown prince), plus 19 grandsons (where the sons were deceased, incapacitated or not interested), and was not intended to apply to the current monarch and his designated heir. Upon the death of the king, the Bay'ah was to immediately hold a meeting to name the crown prince as king, and have a say in the appointment of the heir apparent, being free to reject the king's proposal. This would allow much-needed transparency with regard to the consultations that take place within the family.

By excluding members from branches other than that of the line of Abd al-Aziz, however, the Bay'ah concentrated power ever more narrowly among the family's senior core. This was perhaps inevitable, given the evolution of the family dynamic, but it still did not address the underlying issue - for if the law did not apply to then Crown Prince Sultan, could he not simply appoint his own successor and do away with the Baya'h entirely, establishing his own, parallel dynasty? Since the Commission was flawed from the beginning, it was an inadequate solution to both the looming generational shift and the simmering rivalry with potentially adversarial princes from other branches such as the Sudayri. While succession was now institutionalized within a structure that both recognized the current dynamic and remained consistent with family tradition, the Bay'ah was more of a stop-gap measure, and not the final word.

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