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Competing Narratives: Changing the Tune or Evolving Chaos?

a father-son rift?

A much greater issue relating to the role of MbS in the normalization process has been the extent to which the royals are on board with his program in general. 'On board' in this context may in fact have many connotations, ranging from enthusiastic support, through reluctant acquiescence, to grudging resignation. Insofar as the cadet branches of the family go, princes have had little choice but to go along for the ride, hanging on to the crown prince's coattails if they are lucky enough to gain access. Some have been able to attract his notice and come to relative prominence, but the reality is that the Royal Court is a very different place than it was in previous generations, when efforts were made to be as inclusive as possible, bringing in those from cadet branches (Thunayyan, Farhan and Jiluwi) by co-opting their members into the governing structure - a way to defuse tensions and avoid any challenge to the ruling line Later, as the influence of those branches waned even further, and princes from lines more closely related to that of Ibn Saud's descendants, such as that of his brother Muhammad, or the Saud al-Kabir branch, found themselves reduced to little more than ceremonial status, power became consolidated among a group of brothers which included the current king, Salman. Still, the inclusion of a large number of cousins and nephews acted as a sort of safety valve, ensuring that none would be marginalized to such a degree that they might be encouraged to build an alliance of similarly shut-out princes, which could ultimately coalesce into an alternative power centre. In the present climate, this seems no longer a consideration. Ruthless suppression of any kind of dissent among the royals has ensured that no coalition can emerge, and MbS can pursue his aims without any need to check his rear-view mirrors.

There have been minor blips along the way, such as Ahmad's re-appearance on the scene, which gave hope to some that he might become a figurehead for the disgruntled to rally round. His seniority seemed to confer immunity from the depredations of MbS, and his closeness to his brother, the king, inspired some confidence that he might break down the barriers and speak more candidly to Salman. MbS, long the effective gatekeeper at court, had been restricting access to the aging monarch, worrying princes who suspected the king was not being given the full picture. There were concerns over Salman's health, too, and only a handful of very senior princes are privy to his genuine condition. Although he still chairs the weekly Cabinet session (now done virtually), there has been consistent talk of dementia setting in, with many saying he has trouble focusing and at times only barely aware of his surroundings. If true, MbS becomes something of a puppet master, having the king's ear as he does.

Indeed, Salman has not intervened in any of his son's crackdowns (though he was reportedly distressed by the involvement of MbS in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi). Tellingly, the crackdown continues unabated. While there appeared to be some thought given to making the Kingdom's image more palatable abroad (especially in the lead up to the G-20 summit), such as by releasing female activists from prison, nothing has come of it. MbS remains firmly in charge. But is the issue of diplomatic relations with Israel making manifest an underlying rift? The secret meeting with Netanyahu may have caught the king off guard, and forced his hand. Thus far, he has given the crown prince the benefit of the doubt, but Palestine is dear to his heart, and is perhaps forcing a reassessment of a certain over-indulgence. If so, this would imply a king more in command of his faculties than he has been given credit for. It would also herald a more cautious approach going forward, especially given that relations with the incoming Biden administration are expected to be strained. Given Salman's advanced age, it becomes a race against time.

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