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Competing Narratives: Changing the Tune or Evolving Chaos?

by Senior Analyst Talal Kapoor

At the "Manama Dialogue" security summit, hosted in Bahrain by one of the three Arab counties that have entered into normalization agreements with Israel, the Kingdom's former intelligence chief, Turki al-Faysal, tore into the Israeli government of Prime Minister Netanyahu as "the last of the Western colonizing powers in the Middle East." Coming on the heels of the fiery comments made last month by Bandar bin Sultan, the one-time ambassador to the US, which shocked observers with their passion and candor, Turki's unexpected tirade forced an urgent rethink of the evolving consensus, whereby Saudi was open to normalizing relations with Israel, but chiefly concerned with the potential domestic backlash. It was one thing for a bit player like Sudan to publicly embrace a sworn enemy, but for the Kingdom, as the self-appointed guardian of Islam, as well as the putative leader of the Gulf Cooperation Council, to do so would be a seismic event, one which would need just the right balance of opportunism, strategic timing and public relations groundwork. The assumption, then, was that since the crown prince and de facto ruler, Muhammad bin Salman (MbS), seemed impatient to move on with things and accept the reality of Israeli's position, thereby forging an alliance with its neighbor against the more immediate threat coming from Iran, it was in effect a "done deal", awaiting only the proper circumstances in which the diplomatic breakthrough could be unveiled.

Speaking at the conference, Turki upended those expectations. Pointedly, he brought up the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative that offers Israel full normalization with all Arab states in return for the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state within the pre-1967 borders. Those thinking the goalposts had moved were quickly disabused of their notions. "You cannot treat an open wound with palliatives and painkillers," he said, referring to the push by the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan towards normalization without addressing the underlying grievances. Although Turki emphasized that he was speaking only in a "personal capacity", Foreign Minister Faysal bin Farhan, when it came his turn to speak, did not walk back Turki's argument that the Saudis would only normalize relations with Israel once Palestinian aspirations were met. "We think Israel will take its place in the region," said Faysal. "We will need to see a settlement of the Palestinian dispute and formation of a viable state of Palestine along the lines envisioned in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative." This is perhaps unsurprising, since although Turki has been out of the spotlight for some time, he has always been considered something of an informal family spokesman, whose views are typically an "off the record" insight into royal thinking. Given his closeness to the king, too, it is hard to see Turki's comments as being other than a reflection of high-level royal views, especially those of Salman and princes of the senior generation.

The Israeli Foreign Minister seemed taken aback, however, by Turki's forthright speech. Concessions such as overflight permission for Israeli aircraft had seemed to point the way towards a softening of deeply ingrained (and at times anti-Semitic) attitudes towards Israel. Even the king's speech during the United Nations General Assembly, when he pointedly avoided mentioning the peace accords between Israel and other Arab states, and reiterated his support for a Palestinian state, were dismissed as the reflexive views of a generation traditionally hostile to Israel (it is easy to forget that Faysal, who died as far back as 1975, and whose loathing for Israel was legendary, is in fact Salman's brother). The emerging consensus was that MbS, in effective charge of policy at home, was firmly set on a course to normalization, and was either forging ahead in spite of his father's qualms, or would soon win him over nonetheless. Yet, it is apparent that differences have not been papered over.

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