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Reform, Crackdown and Succession: Continuity or Disruption?

a secular vision?

Salman, from his post at Riyadh, continued to advocate for his policy of forging closer ties with the business class while downplaying the clerical establishment's role in the Kingdom's foundation. As the monarchy transitioned from Fahd to Abdallah, however, he did not enjoy the same intimacy with the new king, who never fully embraced Salman's vision. To some extent the conservatives started to regain the upper hand, despite Abdallah's best efforts at reform (notably his National Dialogue, aimed at tackling religious extremism). But with his own accession in 2015, Salman wasted no time in advancing the interests of his son, and through him, his personal priorities. In the course of a few turbulent years, MbS was put in charge of Defense, elevated to crown prince, and saw his rivals sidelined and even imprisoned. In September 2022, his position as heir apparent became official when he was assigned the function of head of the Council of Ministers - since the rule of Faysal, this had been filled by the king himself.

Continuing where his father had left off as governor of Riyadh, MbS took over the newly-formed Council of Economic and Development Affairs in 2015, and in 2017 he was made head of the Council of Political and Security Affairs, replacing his uncle Muhammad bin Nayif. And although it was MbS who captured the media's attention with his plans for Vision 2030, he was in fact perfectly aligned with his father. At times it seemed as though they were at odds, notably over the importance of the traditional pan-Arab causes such as Palestine (which MbS suggested he would put on the back burner), but the king's reputation and gravitas served as a useful counterpoint to any criticism. There is a direct line from Salman's early and original priorities to the present day, where neo-liberal principles to stimulate economic growth give pride of place to technology, tourism and archaeology.

Significantly, the official narrative around the Kingdom's foundation continues to be repositioned, with the royal family alone now taking center stage. The historical role of the religious scholar Muhammad bin Abd al-Wahhab and his descendants has been further downplayed in order to discredit the clerics, a point driven home in 2022 with the introduction of a 'Foundation Day', celebrating the creation of the first Saudi state in 1727, when Muhammad bin Saud became ruler of the town of Dir'iyyah, rather than the previously traditional 1745, the date of the pact between the religious and secular leaders. This is the most visible sign yet of the process of bringing the religious establishment under the thumb of the royals, which also saw them directly take over the institutions which the clerics controlled, such as the morality police (mutawa'a) or the education and justice ministries.

Sidelining the establishment was possible because Salman's credentials as a religious scholar himself were able to outweigh concerns over his son's respectability in the eyes of the clerics. Nonetheless, an authoritarian system it remains, and more than a few clerics have been imprisoned for failing to understand what was expected of them under the new system and being outspoken, just as activists have been jailed for demanding what was already being given. The brutal reality is that the secularization of national culture and behavior remains the monopoly of the royals, personified by the king and MbS.

Although the aging king, with his low profile and unremarkable conservativism, seems to stand in contrast to his charismatic, media-friendly son, the two men are closely aligned in principle. While it may appear that MbS has upended the traditions of the royal family, he is in fact pursuing a strategy which can be seen as a continuation of his father's priorities. As the crown prince popularizes a new national narrative, centered on the royals, the change is less a revolution than an acceleration of dynamics already in motion.

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