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Succession In A Time Of Uncertainty: Revisiting The Past? (Part II)

each in their turn?

A small faction supported Saud, but the majority of the family stood behind Faysal when matters boiled over in 1964, culminating in a tense standoff with the king's Royal Guard at his sprawling palace compound in Riyadh. Forced to stand down, he first resigned his executive functions, and then gave up the throne. The chaotic disfunction seen throughout his reign was but one factor in the extraordinary decision to remove him from power (an act which could easily have tipped the country into civil war) - the princes were also standing firm against Saud's obvious efforts to subvert the family dynamic. A number of his sons had been promoted to high positions for which they were clearly unqualified, such as Abdallah, appointed Governor of Makkah at the age of 16, and Sa'd, made Commander of the National Guard at age 10, and Saud seemed to be positioning himself as head of what would be a new line of succession, excluding his brothers altogether. The senior royals resolved to put an end to his ambitions.

The reign of Faysal, and then Khalid after him, set in motion what would come to be the template for royal succession, as each brother began taking their turn on the throne, and the identity of the next-in-line heralded in advance. Informal family mechanisms to determine the successor gave way to more official means, with the goal of maintaining stability. But the problem soon became hard to ignore: there were a great many brothers, of varying degrees of competence (or even interest) - whose vast differences in age made the prospect of each one coming to rule during their own lifetime all but impossible - and a powerful faction of full brothers was now threatening to play almost the same role as Saud had before them in upending the entire process. In the one case, it was thought that nature would simply take its course, as some princes would drop out of the running (as indeed happened), while others would just have to accept that they might never see the throne. But the prospect of the Sudayri Seven (as they were known, after the name of their mother, Hussa al-Sudayri, Ibn Saud's favorite wife) establishing an alternate line of succession remained a major concern throughput the following decades.

Fahd became the first of the Sudayri to take the helm, and with his powerful brothers firmly established in key positions - Sultan was Minister of Defense, Nayif the Interior Minister and Ahmad his deputy, with Salman serving as Governor of the capital and family arbiter - affairs seemed firmly in their control. With those official portfolios came vast informal patronage networks, as well as the means to acquire huge fortunes, giving them even more influence. These advantages extended to their sons as well, some of whom, like Muhammad bin Fahd, held provincial governorships and became enormously wealthy by acting as middlemen for business contracts. Only Abdallah, son of a bedouin woman and considered uncouth by his half brothers, stood between the Sudyari and total control: as head of the National Guard, tasked with protecting the Kingdom's domestic infrastructure as well as the royal family itself, Abdallah stood between the Sudayri and any attempt to rupture the delicate family balance - an outright power grab would have plunged the country into open civil war.

Fahd suffered a stroke, however, and Abdallah, as crown prince, became king in all but name. By the time he ascended the throne himself, he had already stamped his imprint on affairs, and the threat of Sudayri dominance began to subside. But age was taking its toll, and the field of eligible candidates to succeed the king was shrinking. This highlighted an emerging issue: in order for the remaining brothers to follow one another on the throne, the Kingdom faced the prospect of a gerontocracy, with a sclerotic leadership marked by declining vigor and excessive caution, with no plans in place to pass the baton to the next generation. Trouble lay ahead.

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