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Over A Barrel: Desperate Measures Or Realpolitik?

by Senior Analyst Talal Kapoor

In what was Biden's first trip to the region as president, he flew directly from Israel to Jiddah (a previously unthinkable route), where he was greeted by Makkah's governor, Khalid al-Faysal, and Rima bint Bandar, the Saudi ambassador to the US. The contrast with the red-carpet treatment enjoyed by former President Trump was notable, but was far from the diplomatic snub many had feared, and rumors that the Saudis were planning an even more low-key reception with a mid-level aide proved unfounded. Biden met both Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) and the king, Salman, before taking part in a working session with the crown prince and ministers. The trip was timed to coincide with the arrival of leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council member states, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq in Jiddah, and framed as an attempt to "to reorient - but not rupture" the US-Saudi relationship, but the trip nonetheless provoked a firestorm of criticism at home, from both left and right.

On the campaign trail, Biden had vowed to "make them [the Saudis] pay the price, and make them in fact the pariah that they are." The murder of Saudi journalist and critic Jamal Khashoggi (which according to the CIA's own assessment had been orchestrated by MbS) was the proximate cause of ire, but Biden also wanted the country to be held accountable for a poor human rights record, and by doing so set his administration apart from that of his predecessor - Trump was regarded as too keen on writing a blank check in return for the praise and flattery he craved. Once in office, however, reality set in, and Biden came to realize that broader issues of more global concern would mean putting aside the particulars of the Khashoggi case, despite the backlash from within even his own Democratic party. Still, the now infamous picture of the president fist bumping MbS at their first meeting gave the appearance of abandoning principle altogether and having tilted too far in the opposite direction.

The fist bump was excused by aides as a precautionary measure against covid, a reasonable explanation apart from the fact that the president was seen shaking hands with the aging monarch, Salman, only hours later. But the damage was done - the gesture "projected a level of intimacy and comfort that delivers to MbS the unwarranted redemption he has been desperately seeking," in the words of the Washington Post. Redemption was, after all, on top of the agenda for the crown prince, who felt shunned by Biden's pointed refusal to meet with him earlier. In the time since the Khashoggi incident, the heir to the throne had been, if not rehabilitated, at least recognized as de facto head of state by most other world leaders. Washington had made it known, however, that the president would only deal with his direct counterpart, the king. This had infuriated the ambitious MbS, who longed for the level of intimacy he had enjoyed with Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner; the animosity he harbored against Biden was manifested in a remarkable interview he gave to the Atlantic magazine in March, when he said he "simply did not care" what Biden thought, a remark that comes across as nearly petulant. Now, with the White House belatedly realizing they needed to deal directly with MbS himself, there was no good way to avoid the impression that Biden was backing down from the principles he had earlier set out; at least the upcoming GCC meeting would provide some cover, but in any event, going hat in hand to ask for Saudi help in stabilizing the oil markets was fast becoming a pilgrimage for Western leaders. With spiraling inflation driven largely by energy costs, domestic politics gave little choice. Furthermore, a Middle Eastern trip was sorely needed - Arab leaders were concerned over Washington's commitment to the region, especially since the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, and two major issues - recognition of Israel and the Iranian nuclear threat - needed to be addressed.

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