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Shady Deals and Silly Sketches: A Faltering Alliance?

downpayment or services rendered?

Indeed, Kushner's proposal to the Saudis had been met with initial skepticism. PIF raised concerns about Affinity's lack of experience in private equity, and the poor results of due diligence reviews - "unsatisfactory in all aspects", was the verdict. Other issues included inexperienced management, taking on too much risk, an "excessive" asset management fee and public relations pushback. Despite this, MbS overruled his own team and directed PIF to seed the fund, which still has little on the books other than the investment from the Kingdom.

The backdrop to this cozy relationship is worsening ties with the Biden administration, as the breakdown in the relationship between Washington and Riyadh since MbS was appointed as crown prince in 2017 continues. Both Saudi and the UAE continue to rebuff the Americans as they attempt to convince those countries to pump more oil to counter soaring energy prices. Biden has apparently abandoned efforts to persuade the Kingdom to increase oil production after repeated refusals, and has tapped the American strategic petroleum reserve instead, but that is only a temporary reprieve from the political nightmare as inflation and the cost of living skyrocket. More recently, the US had hoped to curb Russian government revenue from oil, but as far back as September MbS is said to have told the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that the US "could forget about its request to boost oil production." Aggravating matters is the fact that Biden initially refused to deal directly with the crown prince, and has only spoken with the king, Salman.

Despite attempts at an outreach, however, MbS has reportedly declined to take calls from Biden (although state media put it down to scheduling conflicts). An oft-repeated claim is that the bad blood stems from Riyadh's insistence that the US president should somehow acknowledge MbS as heir to the throne, yet the Saudi list of grievances is long, including the administration's restrictions on arms sales and what they see as a lack of support from Washington for the campaign against Houthis in Yemen, the publication of an embarrassing report into the 2018 murder of the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and of course Biden's prior refusal to deal with MbS in person. Complicating matters is a new push for regional security guarantees akin to NATO's Article 5, which would mitigate concerns over Iran's emboldened nuclear program, and while the administration is reported to be working on the draft of a new statement of US-Saudi security arrangements, there is no chance (given disagreement within Biden's own political party) that it will come close to providing Article 5 commitments, setting the stage for inevitable disappointment.

MbS shows little interest in repairing the damage; indeed, when asked in the course of his recent interview with the Atlantic how he felt about Biden's disapproval, he said he simply did not care (he also warned the US not to interfere in their internal affairs). Saudi has, however, been keen to further ties with China, preferring that country's more transactional and hands-off approach. They have not shied away from engaging with Russia, either, despite international sanctions, in pursuit of a coordinated oil policy. Clearly, MbS would prefer to relive the days of the prior US administration, which gave him free reign and unquestioning support. Kushner was instrumental in putting that relationship in place; although Trump's natural affinity is to prefer dealing with authoritarian leaders, it is unlikely he would have cemented the unusual arrangement, in the face of pushback from the Washington political establishment, without his son-in-law's backdoor dealings. Now, MbS appears to be gambling that he must only bide his time until the clock runs out on the Biden White House, awaiting the return of either Trump or another Republican to the office. For the present, the Americans simply do not matter.

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