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The Saga of Princess Basma bint Saud: The Collapse of Opposition?

clear sailing ahead?

The detention of so many that month, in the luxurious Ritz-Carlton hotel, netted hundreds of millions in assets, turned over to the state as part of a supposed "anti-corruption" drive. It also had the effect of silencing any murmurs of dissent among the crown prince's rivals. Among those held was Mit'ab bin Abdallah, the head of the Kingdom's National Guard and son of the previous king. In the mind of MbS, Mit'ab could have served as a rallying point around which disaffected members of the family might have coalesced. Others, though, such as billionaire investor al-Walid bin Talal, may have been targeted more for their wealth.

MbS seems to have reserved most of his animus for Muhammad bin Nayif (MbN), his predecessor as crown prince until he was dumped in 2017. Despite a very public display of respect and deference to his older uncle at the time, any pretense of familial order was soon swept away, and Muhammad is now being held incommunicado, kept within the confines of his palace, and subjected to a smear campaign surrounding his use of painkillers (stemming from an assassination attempt). As a former heir to the throne, and favored by the Americans to succeed Salman as monarch (owing to his relative accessibility and long-standing ties to Intelligence), the former Minister of Interior was certainly the greatest threat to MbS. One or two others (notably the king's full brother Ahmad) could be considered more senior, with a better claim by right of birth, but they lacked the relevant experience, clout and personal networks. If anyone could have rallied the troops in opposition, it was MbN.

But the machinations of the crown prince may not have stopped there. A former operative who once worked closely with MbN while the prince was head of intelligence claims that MbS proposed that he could eliminate the king himself (Abdallah, at the time). Sa'd al-Jabri, now in hiding in Canada (and who Saudi authorities describe as "a discredited former government official"), claimed during an appearance on CBS News' "60 Minutes" program that during a 2014 meeting with the Interior Minister, MbS boasted that he could kill Abdallah with poison, due to the easy access he enjoyed as gatekeeper to the royal court. "He told him 'I want to assassinate King Abdallah. I get a poison ring from Russia. It's enough for me just to shake hand(s) with him and he will be done'", al-Jabri recounted. There is even said to be video footage backing up the claim.

A good part of the trouble Basma found herself in seems to have been due to her close relationship with MbN, the one rival to the crown prince who posed the most threat. Likely, her advocacy would have been largely ignored had it not been for this additional factor, given that her outspokenness was nothing new and she spent most of her time abroad (Ahmad's frankness was similarly dismissed whilst he resided in London; his troubles only began upon his return home). Unfortunately for Basma, she stood at the confluence of various family tensions and animosities, making for an almost unavoidable target for the wrath of MbS.

The question of her release is more timely: is the crown prince feeling more confident, now that any and all opposition is effectively neutered? Arguably, MbS was in a more precarious position at the time of Basma's arrest - the "crackdown" on disgruntled princes was yet in full swing and an orderly transition, when the time came, was far from assured, as there were enough obstacles to complicate the formalization of succession. Lack of royal unity would have undermined his legitimacy at a crucial time. Now, however, MbS feels assured, with the rest of the family cowed and powerless. If a combination of insecurity and pettiness on his part is what led to Basma's ordeal, her freedom may indicate the start of a new chapter. If, on the other hand, her journey was the result of her own peculiar circumstances, other royals will remain on high alert.

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