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Rebranding the Kingdom: Illusion or Reality?

trouble brewing?

As he acquired more and more power in the family, sidelining almost all competing princes, he was at the forefront of unparalleled change. What was unthinkable before - unrelated men and women mixing in public - became reality with dance music festivals and arena sporting events. He became the darling of the West, feted by New York investment bankers and Silicon Valley tech titans, and press coverage was almost uniformly favorable. The inward-looking, intolerant Wahhabi kingdom was breaking into the modern world, or so it appeared. But trouble was apparent, right from the start.

MbS, newly installed as Defense Minister, had undertaken what was hoped to be a swift campaign in Yemen to support the allied Sana'a government against Houthi rebels backed by Iran. After the initial euphoria, characterized by daily briefings and fawning media coverage of MbS, portrayed very much as the public face of the war, wore off, it became apparent that no easy victory was at hand. The rebels, supplied by sea, even gained ground, whilst a humanitarian catastrophe unfolded. As the years dragged on, Western powers became uneasy about continuing their supply of weaponry to Saudi. Although under President Trump the U.S. was an uncritical ally, the Biden administration has followed the lead of other countries in refusing to sell arms which might be used in Yemen. Increasingly, too, the public gaze worldwide has turned to the dire situation there, taking much of the luster off what MbS had once hoped would be a proud accomplishment.

But it was the gruesome murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 that, above all, shook the foundations, unmasking the reality of the crown prince's modus operandi. A mild critic of Saudi policies, Khashoggi was lured to the embassy in Istanbul where he was surprised by a hit squad led by Saud al-Qahtani, a key aide and confidante of MbS. Initially hoping the furor would die down, MbS tried at first to ignore the public relations disaster, but widespread outrage has only increased in the two years since. The episode has been intensely damaging to his reputation. Although the U.S. declined to sanction MbS personally, the recently declassified intelligence report linking him unequivocally to the murder was the final blow. Whatever bona fides he once had as a modernizer and liberator, riding on the success of his much-heralded reforms allowing women more rights and freedoms, and curtail the repressive influence of the mutawa'a, has by now been utterly destroyed, as he finds himself a pariah on the world stage.

MbS clung to the hope that Trump, who served as a shield from accountability by the U.S. Congress, would be re-elected, but the incoming administration has put Saudi on notice. Keen to avoid a head-on clash, MbS made a series of gestures designed to make it appear that his reformist program was still on track - women's rights activist Loujain al-Hathlul was released from prison, and other high-profile cases were expedited to a convenient resolution. Still, the crackdown on any form of dissent has continued unabated. Most recently, to take one example, a counterterrorism court has sentenced Abd al-Rahman al-Sadhan, accused of running a pseudonymous Twitter account that parodied members of the government, to 20 years in prison. Once a free-for-all to which Saudis flocked, the social media platform has increasingly been monitored by the authorities, who target key influencers and "instigators". Even royal family members are not safe from the unrelenting campaign to shut down any and all criticism (and by extension, MbS himself). Notable royals detained include Basma bint Saud and her daughter Suhud, the former crown prince Muhammad bin Nayif, and Salman bin Abd al-Aziz bin Salman, who was perceived to be seeking influence in Washington to counter the rising royal star.

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