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It's Complicated: The Changing Nature of the US-Saudi Alliance

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In addition, a travel ban, which can cover family members as well, would immediately be applied to 76 Saudi individuals "believed to have been engaged in threatening dissidents overseas, including but not limited to the Khashoggi killing." The question of a visa for MbS, should he decide to visit the US, was put off for another day. The administration had concluded that the myriad complications (not to mention irreparable damage to the long-standing alliance) which would arise from any further action outweighed the message sent - for one thing, the personal finances of MbS were impossible to separate from state coffers. Biden's tough stance overall was deemed sufficient; already, the White House had pointedly put off accepting a congratulatory call from King Salman as long as possible, and made clear that formal lines of communication would bypass the crown prince. From now on, the heads of state would correspond directly, unlike the Trump days when an informal back channel existed between the president's son-in-law and MbS. The word of the day was "recalibration", an imposing and resonant term which nonetheless connotes more an adjustment or fine-tuning than a complete reset. There would be no break or severance, in spite of unanimous condemnation by both political parties, only a virtual dressing down, along with the unambiguous message that this time, there would be no blank check.

The message, with all its implications (especially the absence of sanctions and the ban's lack of bite) were not lost on the royals. A "recalibration" of their own took shape, trying to define the boundaries of the new and changing relationship. Biden's no-nonsense approach had been the catalyst for perfunctory reforms over the last few months, such as releasing or reducing the prison sentences of activists, in order to soothe human rights' concerns, but those cost nothing. The goal was to generate a measure of goodwill, while awaiting the response to the CIA report's findings. How harsh were the Americans willing to be, in light of Biden's commitment to pressing for domestic reform in Saudi? Would he jeopardize the relationship for political gain at home, notwithstanding the need for the Kingdom's support in addressing regional concerns, not the least of which is Iran's nuclear ambition?

The answer came in the form of an appearance by Bandar bin Sultan, former chief of Saudi Intelligence and a former ambassador to the US, who described the CIA report as "an assessment as the US intelligence agency itself called, and not a list of evidence". Speaking to Okaz newspaper, he echoed the line that the affair was already "over and done", with the perpetrators charged and put away. MbS had no involvement, but he had shouldered responsibility just the same, as befitting a proper leader. The language used was remarkably similar to that of the social media "army" controlled by the crown prince's allies. The American assessment of Khashoggi's murder, according to Bandar, was in fact shaped by preconceived prejudices and political positions towards Saudi, which then found in the crime an opportunity to articulate these prejudices and bias.

Bandar's tone, though defensive, aimed to strike the right balance between justified outrage and dispassionate reason. Given his standing, his words are not meant to be taken lightly, and he has emerged as something of an informal mouthpiece for MbS. Last year, he raised eyebrows for lashing out at the Palestinian leadership, a position which reflected the crown prince's own thinking, rather than the official line. It is hard to see his thoughts here as anything other than MbS testing the waters of the "recalibrated" relationship. Far from chastened or regretful, MbS sees that, simply put, the Saudi-US alliance is too important to jeopardize - the Americans are not about to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Will he be further emboldened as a result, or respect the new guidelines?

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