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Feature Article
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Shock Therapy: Confronting a New Reality?

complacent onlookers?



Notably, Abd al-Aziz described the production cut as a "political, sovereign" step rather than a "technical" one. Traditionally, the royals have been at pains to keep domestic politics and oil policy separate, which is why non-royals have until now managed the state-run energy sector. Now that a son of the king is in charge, however, moves that benefit the family politically are becoming more common.

While the OPEC+ announcement gave a boost to the shares of American energy producers, it is harder to make sense of Saudi reasoning behind the treatment of dissidents, when there is an obvious need to avoid alienating the incoming US team even further. Though there was talk, in the run up to the last G20 meeting (hosted by Saudi) of releasing activists who had been detained, in order to leverage some badly needed goodwill, the Kingdom has instead cracked down even further. High-profile detainees include activist Lujayn al-Hathlul, who was just handed a six year prison term (though with a likely release in early 2021), and Walid Fitayhi, the founder of a prominent Jiddah hospital, who was sentenced to six years in jail (he is free pending appeal). In both cases, the severity of treatment seems vastly out of step with their alleged crimes - al-Hathlul's case, for example, was tried in the antiterrorism court. Others, such as royal members Basma bint Saud (along with her daughter Shuhud), and Abd al-Aziz bin Salman (both held at the maximum security al-Ha'ir prison), still languish, with fears for their health. If there is one issue the royals can be assured that the Biden administration is going to push them hard on, it is human rights, and yet Saudi seems only to have been accelerating trials of the dissidents.

Has MbS been caught off guard? Given the closeness of MbS to Kushner, in whom he sees a kindred spirit, it is possible the crown prince had fallen victim to a belief that the Trump spin on events, namely that the Electoral College votes from November's contest would somehow be awarded to him through various legal machinations, or even by means of some last minute deus ex machina spectacle involving the Vice President, at the time of the formal certification of the states' electoral votes in January. Trump's inner circle is down to a handful of close advisors by this point, Kushner being key, and although it is unlikely Kushner himself believed that the actual outcome would change, it is undoubtedly what the president wanted to hear, and what he was hearing from his coterie of advisors. Some of those urged him to face reality and accept defeat, whist others thought that leading him to believe he still had a fighting chance was the best way of letting the president come to terms with the loss. In his dealings with Kushner, MbS likely picked up on the version being spun by Trump's closest family members (egging him on to fight), and in his earnest desire to continue the very favorable (to say the least) relationship he had enjoyed with the Americans over the course of Trumps' presidency, let himself be convinced there was some hope in such a plan of action. Not being at all familiar with the American system (one of the few royals, in fact, who have never spent time abroad for education), he may not have understood why this never had any chance of success. Furthermore, being surrounded by advisors at court (also unfamiliar with the obscure electoral college) who tend to avoid provoking the crown prince with unpleasant realities, MbS may have come to believe that Biden's inauguration was not a certainty after all. Only as time went on, and the Trump legal team was unable to make any convincing argument as to why the results should be overturned, did MbS suddenly realize that his time with Trump was over. Action was called for, whatever the more immediate cost, before Biden stepped in. The resulting scattershot approach to policy has all the hallmarks of this sudden epiphany, but will it save the day?

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