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An Election Dilemma: Moving Forward or Nursing Wounds?

campaign vs reality?

"I would make it very clear we were not going to in fact sell more weapons to them, we were going to in fact make them pay the price and make them in fact the pariah that they are," Biden said. Over the past two years, Biden has further said that the Saudi government has "very little social redeeming value", that Riyadh had murdered "children...and innocent people" in Yemen, and has indicated that he would return to a 2015 nuclear pact between world powers and Tehran, which was fiercely opposed by the royals.

On the face of it, they have much to fear. MbS has indulged Trump, and in return has enjoyed a blank check for his behavior, despite Saudi becoming more and more of a pariah state in the eyes of the rest of the world. While he has tried to promote the image of the Kingdom as a modernizing and progressive member of the international community, holding dance music festivals and sporting mega-events like the Dakar Rally, an upcoming Formula One race, and WWE wrestling, the repression of domestic dissent has continued apace. The diaspora of dissidents goes on, while many languish in prison at home, including some prominent royals. To counter the arm's-length treatment being given by Western nations, Saudi has taken some small steps, such as relaxing the rules regarding migrant workers, and hinting at clemency for women's rights activists. This public relations blitz attempts a reset, after the disastrous period following Khashoggi's murder, hoping to turn back the clock to a time when MbS was still the toast of Silicon Valley and Saudi seemed to be getting ahead of the curve with its aggressive reform projects.

But the announcement that the G20 summit in November will now take place virtually is another blow to the Kingdom's image reboot, as it loses the chance to bask in the event's pageantry and be seen hosting foreign leaders as equals in the more subdued virtual setting. Meanwhile, the European Parliament, members of the US Congress, and national parliaments of other G20 states have urged their representatives to boycott the meeting entirely. This October, too, Saudi lost its bid for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council, signalling that the international community will no longer tolerate serious rights abuses. With or without US pressure, the Kingdom is already losing the public relations battle. A new administration in the White House can tighten the thumbscrews, but the message is clear - business as usual is no longer an option. It remains to be seen, however, whether steps like clemency for activists are sincere, or simply window dressing to accommodate Western feelings of discomfort. So far, MbS has not indicated any genuine willingness to budge from his single-minded pursuit of absolute power, no matter the cost, but the realization that his ambitions cannot be achieved while at the same time being shunned by international players may be dawning.

In addition, although the Trump administration has provided air cover for his various excesses, the Americans have been an unpredictable ally. When Saudi oilfields were hit with missiles last September -- investigators determined "with very high probability" that they were launched from Iran - the royals were at once disappointed in Trump's seeming lack of comprehension as to the severity of the crisis, and crouched in fear lest his mercurial temper escalate matters into a full-scale conflict. With King Salman approaching the end of his years and MbS set to take the helm, the last thing the royals need is more confusion, mixed messages and contradictory US foreign policy. Biden may need to sound tough on the campaign trail, but once in office the rhetoric will moderate, and his administration will get down to the business of working out a new model of co-operation. Despite the closeness to the current White House, the Saudis are not yet ready to go it alone, and will work with Biden, even if it may be through clenched teeth.

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