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Disruption Top to Bottom: The Reappearance of Bandar bin Sultan

uncertain motives?

His entry onto the stage at this juncture is even more significant, given that he represents something of the 'old guard', which, it was assumed, has been entirely displaced by the upstart young crown prince and his radical new ideas. It is an open secret that most of the royal family would like nothing more than to be rid of him, and return to the status quo ante, such is their resentment at the upheaval to the family structure. Many of those now in favor, being given key roles and responsibilities far beyond their experience and qualifications, are allies of MbS, or at least those who have somehow wandered into his orbit and that he has taken a liking to. The cost of this unfamiliar way of doing business is an ever-increasing circle of disgruntled princes - dispirited and resentful - who know they may never rise to anything like importance, or at least (which in some cases is even more a source of anxiety) see themselves as robbed of the opportunity to benefit financially from their connections and royal status. Of course, Bandar is the very antithesis of this group, having already done his public service (and profited handsomely, acting as a facilitator for massive government contracts, such as the al-Yamamah arms deal with British-based BAE, for which he received an enormous cut), so any opposition to MbS on his part would relate more to his views on the crown prince's suitability for the role or concerns over the succession issue. And indeed, there are princes even more senior (the king's brother Ahmad, and former Interior Minister Muhammad bin Nayif) whose hostility to the crown prince is well known. These two, however, have been forcibly removed from the picture, along with dozens of others of varying seniority and influence. Does Bandar's acquiescence represent a genuine embrace of MbS and his policies, or does he fear meeting a similar fate?

During the tenure of the late King Abdallah, when royal watchers were eyeing the future of succession, Turki al-Faysal was talked of as a potential candidate, though most likely a long shot. His stature was unsurpassed, he had the requisite experience, and he was a favorite of Western allies. Similarly, Bandar (who earned the nickname Bandar Bush for his closeness to the former American president) was considered one of the upper echelon, despite the fact that his birth to a Yemeni concubine effectively disqualified him from the kingship. With the arrival of MbS, however, the calculus changed, and the old guard slipped from view. In fact, many of the highest-profile royals found themselves very much out of favor - al-Walid bin Talal, for example, the high-flying celebrity businessman, was arrested, along with many other allegedly corrupt princes, and had the rug pulled from beneath his feet. Since the November 2017 crackdown set in motion by MbS, he has been under virtual house arrest, confined to his residence and monitored electronically. The head of the National Guard, Mit'ab bin Abdallah, once a serious contender for the throne, was also taken out - arrested, removed from command and probably tortured in prison. And of course, the whereabouts of Ahmad and Muhammad bin Nayif are unknown, as concern mounts over their health and care (various international organizations are calling for an investigation). The message has been clear - those who are fully not on board with MbS are walking on thin ice, and those expressing opposition, even in guarded and delicately-phrased comments, risk imprisonment, or worse. All rivals have been eliminated, including those at the very top of the ladder, all with the apparent approval of the king, who is at least nominally in charge. The question then, is whether the 'buy-in' we are seeing with certain family elders represents their considered assessment of the situation and a balancing of personal risk, or a genuine change of heart.

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