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Ambition Meets Reality: The Crown Prince's Dilemma

a precarious place to be?

Salman's generation may be averse to such fundamental change, but MbS is more pragmatic. His earlier indications show a willingness to accept the status quo and move on. This, coupled with (reportedly) a series of meetings with Israeli PM Netanyahu, and ongoing behind the scenes diplomatic work at the highest levels (most of which is public knowledge by this time), point to a future in which unwavering support for the Palestinian cause, especially the contentious "right of return", is no longer the bedrock of Saudi foreign policy. A mutual loathing of regional foe Iran has taken precedence in the post-9/11 world, and Saudi would rather be aligned with Israel than continue to put on the show of being the Palestinians sole benefactor. In the past, such a posture benefited the royals, buttressing their religious credentials with the hardline clerics at home, and acting as a sort of release valve for domestic dissent, but MbS seems to have no patience for theatre, and little regard for pleasing religious conservatives, if it comes at the expense of slowing the pace of his reform project.

The more short-term concern is the US presidential election, which, if polls are correct, would result in a victory for Joe Biden and a new administration to deal with, one which will be not nearly so accommodating. Unlike Trump, who had the interests of only himself and supporters in mind, Biden and the Democrats will want to put as much daylight as possible between a new White House and the so far uncritical indulgence of MbS. Human rights concerns will be front and centre, and MbS will be sure to come in for severe censure if there is no letup in the ongoing crackdown. Royals continue to be held incommunicado, and others live in fear (or in self-imposed exile) of reprisal for even the mildest of critiques. Activists, likewise, are on edge, wondering when the promised utopia will arrive. Without the unquestioning support of the US, Saudi risks being set adrift - ties with Russia have been strained, both over oil policy and a solution to Syria, and although China may one day take the Americans' place, that looks increasingly far off, as relations have not developed as fast as hoped. For the time being, the US is an irreplaceable ally. How will Saudi cope with an openly hostile White House, one which demands more than window dressing by way of reform, and does not give a green light to the depredations of the crown prince? The more troubled ties with the US are, the less confident MbS will be in his position; although the Americans are far from being "kingmakers", as some believe, contenders for the throne traditionally backstop their claim with proof of full-throated US support. In the case of MbS, his predecessor, Muhammad bin Nayif, the former Minister of Interior, was much preferred due to his close work with allies, and for being a "known quantity", but the new crown prince has taken the concept to a new level entirely owing to his relationship with Trump and Kushner. The scene will change drastically in January, given a Biden win. Reports have Trump officials privately accepting the inevitability of a loss; one imagines similar conversations taking place in Riyadh.

Will gaping differences with a White House under Biden embolden those princes opposed to MbS? At the moment, there is a little hope of any faction rising to challenge his supremacy. All rivals, even imagined ones, have been rounded up and either physically imprisoned or figuratively shaken down. But MbS has also painted himself into a corner. He has gambled the future of the state on his plans for reform, which do not include the participation of either the religious establishment or the rest of the royal family. A bold move such as the recognition of Israel, or the loss of his American protector (in the form of Trump), and MbS will find the rug pulled from beneath his feet. Heading into the next few months, the Kingdom will confront a most uncertain time.

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