The Saudi Royal Family Directory is the comprehensive source for biographic and geneological information on the Saudi Arabian Royal family. The database includes over 5,000 records of Saudi Royal family members. You can search the database and view the family tree for free. For online biographic reports, check out the subscription page.

An Unpredictable Prince: Realpolitik Or Royal Politics?

by Senior Analyst Talal Kapoor

Salman, aged 85, left Riyadh's King Faysal hospital on July 30 after a 10-day stay following a laparoscopic surgery to remove his gall bladder. He had already been shown on state television hosting a virtual cabinet session in the hopes of dispelling the inevitable rumors over his health, a justifiable concern given his frail state and the upheaval feared upon news of his passing. The king then headed to the 'NEOM' city development on the picturesque west coast near Jiddah for a period of rest and recuperation. One is reminded of the situation not so many years ago when a succession of senior royals, such as the crown princes Nayif and Sultan, began to take longer and longer absences as their health troubles mounted, with only a small inside circle privy to how much their health had really declined. With Salman's son set to take over as the effective next in line, observers are watching the king's every move with more than the usual amount of trepidation.

Though a formal process is necessary to validate the succession, Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) is close to becoming king, even if for all intents and purposes he already controls the levers of power, thanks to the devolution of authority from Salman, which started as a trickle (his appointment as Defense Minister) and became a firehose (a now unchallenged sway over the entire apparatus of state). Yet, the initial euphoria surrounding his rise and the expected transfer of power to the next generation of royals has worn off, and with each new snowballing crisis and onslaught of scandal the clouds have darkened. The illusion was shattered with the revelation of his involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey, and now he seems to have been implicated in another attempt at 'silencing' opponents.

Sa'd al-Jabri, once an aide to the previous crown prince Muhammad bin Nayif, and having fallen foul of MbS, has alleged that a team of professional killers was sent to find and assassinate him. al-Jabri, now living in Canada, filed suit in a federal court in Washington, claiming that members of the "Tiger Squad", which is said to be part of the crown prince's personal mercenary force and the same team that was implicated in the journalist's murder, attempted to enter Canada on tourist and diplomatic visas in October 2018. His suit describes how the Canada Border Services Agency allegedly denied entry at a Canadian airport to the group of would-be assassins, with the details also revealing a shocking degree of ineptitude on the part of the "Squad" (they were carrying a group photo in a piece of luggage, but pretended not to know one another, and then panicked and demanded help from the Embassy when confronted with the inconsistency).

al-Jabri worked side by side with the Interior Minister, Muhammad bin Nayif, being at one time the second most powerful man in Saudi intelligence and the Kingdom's liaison with the Americans. After his falling out with MbS, he fled to Canada, although his adult children, Omar and Sarah, remained behind. They have since vanished, and the family fears for their safety. It is believed they are being held as bargaining chips; MbS is also said to have been in touch with al-Jabri via text message, trying to entice him to return. Now, he lives in hiding, under constant armed guard in Toronto. The timing of the suit, and the hint of damaging revelations to come, may be a warning shot to the crown prince in the face of threats.

The heart of the matter appears to be the Saudi role in the Syrian civil war, and behind the scenes manoeuvring by MbS which resulted in a "green light" for Russian intervention on the side of Bashar al-Assad. Previously, Saudi had supported the rebels in their fight against the Syrian regime forces - bin Nayif and al-Jabri had in fact worked privately with the Americans to decide which of the many rebel factions to support, a difficult task considering that many were extremist groups themselves.

Related articles: MbS and a Surfeit of Crises: Balancing Act or the End of Disruption?
Royal Family Domestic Politics in the Modern Era: Co-optation, Rebellion and Dissent (Part II)
Royal Family Domestic Politics in the Modern Era: Co-optation, Rebellion and Dissent (Part I)
Page 2: an untrustworthy ally?