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The Bay'ah and Royal Legitimacy: Misguided Ventures or Last Remaining Hope?

an existential threat?

Already depleted in numbers, the bay'ah has been further diminished by the targeting of its members. In March, Ahmad, the king's full brother, and former crown prince Muhammad bin Nayif were detained on the charge of plotting a coup d'etat to remove MbS from the succession. Ahmad had been persuaded to return from self-imposed exile in October 2018 after promises that he would be treated in accordance with his status (technically, as succession was envisioned by Ibn Saud, Ahmad should follow Salman, being the next most senior and capable of his surviving sons), calculating that he would be immune from the depredations of his nephew. For a time Ahmad became a figurehead for those hoping to convince Salman that MbS should have his wings clipped, and yet it was the king himself who signed the arrest warrant. Muhammad, for his part, had very publicly pledged his allegiance to MbS in 2017 after his removal from his post, but now finds himself confined to his Red Sea palace with his allowance cut off.

Crucially, the charge of treason was based on alleged conversations about sidelining MbS through the bay'ah. Specifically, they were said to have discussed installing Muhammad as chairman of the Council, a position which has been vacant since the death of Mish'al in May 2017. In fact, the bay'ah has no authority (according to its own rules) without a chairman, and also requires a quorum of two-thirds, both of which conditions were not met in the case of MbS, when there was no physical meeting (only votes cast by telephone). Indeed, there was no unanimity either, with Ahmad making no secret of his refusal to endorse MbS, and pointedly declining to give his allegiance in person, as was expected of all. Now, along with Muhammad bin Nayif, who has been labelled a dug addict and a traitor, he is safely out of the picture.

Saud bin Abd al-Muhsin, finger to the wind, seems to have been pro-active in his plan to secure an escape route. Others who posed a threat to the accession of MbS, notably the late Abdallah's son Mit'ab (though not a bay'ah member; that role is played by to his elder brother Khalid, who retired from public life long ago), have similarly been dealt with. Mit'ab was once thought to be a viable alternative to MbS - one of the younger generation who could smoothly take over, competent and experienced. Of course, he was rounded up as well. A sense of resignation has set in, as one of the last remaining avenues to put the brakes on MbS, after the failure of consensus and persuasion, has proven to be a dead end.

Using the mechanisms of state against the one who would usurp it works only so far as the disruptor recognizes the existence of such guardrails; assumptions are dangerous when the personified threat to state institutions is in a position to demolish those very safeguards. In this case, MbS fears the taint of illegitimacy, knowing that the bay'ah is unable to act as a proper stamp of approval. Forced, for the time being, to acknowledge its symbolism, he will continue to chip away at the foundations until it becomes wholly irrelevant. In the meantime, the representative princes will be cowed. So far, that approach has been remarkably successful, though only made possible through the indulgence of Salman, who has allowed MbS to take control over virtually the entirety of the state. A collapsing economy, however, may render all his efforts meaningless. The social compact itself is in jeopardy, with government forced to slash spending in the face of recession and a coronavirus shutdown. MbS has been able to recklessly disregard the pillars of royal rule (clerical, tribal, and business support) while being popular among the youth, but economic hardship will test the durability of that contract. The more upheaval ensues, the more people may yearn for normalcy, and reject the "disruptors". The future of MbS may ultimately depend more on the economic fortunes of the Kingdom than royal family politics.

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