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MbS and a Surfeit of Crises: Balancing Act or the End of Disruption?

forging ahead?

Since his ascendancy, MbS has counted on Trump as a steadfast ally, often while Congress, including members of the President's own party, have been furious at his actions. Although it is true the Americans have been key supporters of the military campaign in Yemen, supplying the equipment (mostly jets and missiles) that allowed 'Operation Decisive Storm' to continue, in spite of the humanitarian catastrophe, the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi ignited a firestorm and led to calls to reassess the strategic relationship. Now, the threat to tens of thousands of jobs in the fracking industry adds rocket fuel to the conflagration. MbS has felt comfortable in the knowledge that the President's son-in-law Jared Kushner gave him a window into the White House, based on their personal relationship, but Trump's re-election is no longer seen as a certainty. A collapsing economy makes a new administration next January a distinct possibility, with an overtly hostile view of the state of affairs in Saudi. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has said MbS should be regarded as a "pariah" who should be "punished", and human rights concerns would loom larger in the overall picture than now. If America resumes a "hands-on" approach to the Middle East, MbS will find a vastly different landscape.

There are signs that the crown prince, if not chastened, is at least facing reality. Saudi has announced a unilateral ceasefire in Yemen, a humiliation after years of fighting which drained the budget and accomplished nothing. The Houthis and al-Qa'ida factions still control large sections of the country, and the de facto Iranian presence on the Kingdom's southern border will have to be reconciled with the focus on Saudi nationalism which MbS has pushed, in a radical departure from the traditional underpinnings of state identity. The coming to terms with the loss of the short-lived oil price wars and an uncertain economic future (an oil glut will already keep prices depressed for months; between 20 and 40 supertankers are now at sea carrying 80 million barrels in floating storage) is another humbling moment that makes Vision 2030, and the success of NEOM, his showcase "tech city", perhaps beyond reach.

With facts on the ground in rapid flux, the question will be the Saudi response. Thus far, MbS has shown no inclination to give way, show remorse, or change tack. In the face of outrage over Khashoggi, the instinct was to deny, cover up, and then hope the matter would be forgotten (which proved largely effective). In the case of mounting international criticism over the ongoing repression of activists, he has only intensified efforts, with at least two major purges, both of which also rounded up members of the royal family itself. Each time he has defied the critics who said he had got in front of his skis, with few, if any, long-term consequences. The end result has been an emboldening and crystalisation of his worst impulses, making it unlikely that a change of course is in the works. Practically speaking, an (opportunistic) evaluation of the shifting political landscape will be the only impetus for a revised orientation.

At the end of the day, the vaunted "disruption" of the crown prince (and others, including Trump and certain entrepreneurs), is a luxury afforded those living in an already affluent and stable society. Only if certain preconditions are met does one have the freedom to "disrupt" anything at all, otherwise it is simply a case of embarking on one among a number of different tangents, which in most cases is the normal course of events. If such a project is to be anything more than an affectation of the rich and privileged, it must survive the challenge of persisting in an unstable environment. Amongst economic collapse, tensions coarsing through civil society, and infighting within the royal family, it will be difficult for MbS to press ahead with his plans without hugely scaling back his ambitions.

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