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A Royal Purge, Part Two: Crisis Ahead, or Smoothing the Way?

a challenge to succession?

Several other, less well known princes have been caught up in the sweep. Nayif bin Ahmad and Muhammad bin Sa'd, a nephew of the king, were also taken into custody, and Saud bin Nayif, Governor of the Eastern Region, was taken in but later released. A total of perhaps twenty princes are said to be involved, along with numbers of government officials, but the place of the detained princes in the Kingdom's "bay'ah", or Allegiance Committee, would seem to be key. The bay'ah was set up by the late Abdallah as a way of formalizing what had become a haphazard and unpredictable way to choose the next king and his heir, following the failure of previous attempts to institutionalize the process. Although technically enshrined in law, succession was still in practice dependent on the whims of a monarch, and Abdallah, with no full brothers as support and few allies at that, hoped to keep the throne from the clutches of his rivals, especially the so-called Sudayri clan, which at the time included the powerful brothers Sultan, Salman, and Nayif. Fearing they would find a way to shut out the rest of the family in favor of their own branch, Abdallah instructed that a king must be chosen by a consensus of senior princes, whose overall numbers would provide a counterweight to Sudayri influence. The bay'ah was to be composed of 34 members, being the sons of the Founder, Ibn Saud, or a son if they were deceased, or a representative. At the moment, there are only 33 members, one seat having been left vacant, and the chairmanship itself lies empty.

A common thread linking the detained princes is their place within the bay'ah - Ahmad, Saud bin Nayif (son of the king's late brother and elder brother of MbN) and Muhammad bin Sa'd (son of another brother) are all bay'ah members. The most likely scenario is one in which Ahmad had planned to assert his right to the chair of the committee, which might have stopped the crown prince's ambition dead in its tracks. Although the Chair could not have wielded any formal influence over the actual voting, his authority, along with the status seniority brings, brought hope that others would rally round any burgeoning resistance to a rubber stamp of MbS. Both Ahmad and MbN had cast their votes against his installation as crown prince, and there was no chance of a smooth ride the next time round. Whereas in the absence of leadership, some might have hesitated to incur the future king's wrath, Ahmad might have provided an umbrella for dissenting views. At the very least, MbS would be deprived of legitimacy. Consensus may only be formal, and fierce opposition may exist in private, but the threat of a disunited bay'ah was frightening. Not only would the king's status as the legitimate heir forever be marked with an asterick, but the precariousness of his position would mean that a potential challenger could rise up at any moment, confident in calling on enough support.

The timing of the move raised the question of whether MbS was about to have Salman declared unfit, or seek to install himself on the throne while the king was still alive, by some sort of subterfuge. More likely, matters had simply boiled to a head; Ahmad had become a focal point for disgruntled princes to air their grievances, and MbS was growing frustrated, perhaps fearing the talk would lead to action. With the price of oil crashing (the Kingdom's main source of revenue) and anger mounting over the response to the coronavirus (closing off the Holy Places just weeks before the start of pilgrimage), MbS may have decided to strike first. Crisis begets response, and the window for Ahmad and his allies to act was now, if ever. If in fact a pre-emptive move, and assuming MbS has no immediate plans to usurp his still-living father, the next thing to watch will be the treatment of Ahmad and the others. Will they return to public life, suitably warned and chastened, or will their continued confinement herald a new age of family infighting?

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