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Phone Hacks And Hangers-On: Change Of Course Or Character In Action?

unforeseen consequences?

The unfolding scenario, wherein one prince (or king) begins to force out all others, was never foreseen in this context. The process until now has been viewed in the framework of one (powerful) brother clashing with another (equally powerful) brother, most notably with the inherent tension between the so-called Sudayri Seven (a set of full brothers including the late Fahd and the current king) and their collective half-brothers, but also in the dark days of King Saud, when he tried, perhaps a little too obviously, to set his own sons up to succeed him at the expense of his brothers, who were intended to govern in their turn. Indeed, the establishment of the state has, from the beginning, seen a deep-rooted conflict between rivalry and cooperation - the brothers needed to work together, as a counterbalance to the various spheres of patronage and influence they each controlled, but there was at the same time a constant manoeuvering to place one's own sons in a position of strength, with the ultimate goal of seeing one particular branch of the family (such as the Sudayri) achieve pre-eminence, even establishing an alternate line of succession.

At inception, the idea of brother succeeding brother in orderly fashion made sense - it followed the bedouin tradition of the position of shaykh, or tribal leader, being passed among a family, rather than being simply an inherited title. Leadership had to be earned (or fought for), and the tribe's members needed a clear idea of the character and potential of any candidate for the role to properly judge his suitability. The Western model of leadership being passed along through generations by blood alone was laughable, not to mention dangerous, when every neighboring tribe was an enemy, at one time or another - how could trust be placed in one who had not proven himself? There was bound to be bumps in the road, but the situation of more recent times - a succession of octogenarian kings, and their aging brothers, who have largely shut out the generation below them from power sharing as they clung on - was not taken account of. It was assumed that at some point, leadership would be transferred to the sons and grandsons, but the longer the structure ossified, the more likely it was that a crown prince like MbS would come along and sweep everything up. His cousins, marginalized and holding no real power themselves, can do nothing in practical terms but complain, and Salman provides the legitimacy for his continued streak of good luck.

In fact, the rivals of MbS have had misfortune strike twice. Allegiance to their own fathers (or uncles) meant that they were shut out of the initial reorganization which saw the crown prince begin to take on more and more responsibility, while suspicion of his motives meant that many otherwise capable princes have been reluctant to join forces and participate in the new reality. The roster of appointments has been rapid and ever-changing; many governorships and key roles are now held by fairly junior princes whose main qualification seems to have been their impression on MbS. Whether others have held back of their own accord or been intentionally shut out, the result has been an unprecedented influx of younger royals. Their position within the larger family does not seem to have had any bearing, either - the new Foreign Minister Faysal bin Farhan, is a member of a cadet branch (Farhan), as is the Culture Minister and MbS confidante (Badr bin Abdallah). Similarly, Hayfa bint Abd al-Aziz, the Kingdom's new Permanent Representative to UNESCO, and Faysal bin Abd al-Aziz, the mayor of Riyadh appointed in November, are members of the Al Muqrin branch, an even more distant branch (though technically senior, as the Al Saud are an offshoot of the Muqrin line, from whom they diverged in the late 17th century).

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