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Hitmen and Masterminds: Drawing a Line or Trouble Ahead?

sham trials?

A big part of the discomfort is the suspicion that, apart from the well-known hostility to marginalized groups, the authorities are, in fact, whitewashing human rights abuses. While on the one hand women are given the right to drive, on the other, there are reports of the detention of vocal advocates for other, or different, rights. The impression given is that the West is meant to see one thing, while a ferocious crackdown on dissent continues behind the scenes. In this sense, Khoshoggi's killing typified all that was wrong with the picture, coming at exactly the wrong time. Saudi was trying to woo investors and sell Vision 2030, while the worst authoritarian-style abuses were on flagrant display.

No one was able to keep track, after the murder in Istanbul, of the changing explanations offered. At first, the Saudis denied anything at all had happened, insisting that Khashoggi had walked out alive. Then, they were forced to admit he had died, but whether it was accidentally, after some sort of 'fistfight', or the result of an over-enthusiastic 'rogue' operation, was never fully sorted out. Eventually, the authorities decided that some relatively low-level henchmen had done the deed, of their own accord, which explanation would at least absolve the higher-ups of knowledge and blame. That was the line taken up to the (closed-door) session when the remaining defendants were put on trial. According to the prosecutor's office, "when the killers saw it would be impossible to transfer the journalist to a safe place to negotiate with him, they decided to kill him". Few outsiders are convinced by this, however; in her comprehensive report, U.N. investigator Callamard said experts had found it 'inconceivable' that a sophisticated 15-man mission to kill Khashoggi could have happened without the knowledge of MbS. Furthermore, the evidence pointed to it having been premeditated, further implicating the crown prince through his connections with al-Qahtani and others.

Although they may have hoped to tamp down the blaze, the Saudis may have only fanned the flames by leaving the chief architects untouched. Realistically, MbS was not going to be implicated (the most he could do was shoulder a more indirect responsibility, during a TV interview), but al-Qahtani's complete exoneration puts the relationship with Washington front and centre. The U.S. had made it clear that they expected him, at least, to face consequences, instead, he was never even brought to trial. For his part, MbS has pushed back against concerns that he was willing to sacrifice even his closest confidants in the pursuit of his agenda. al-Qahtani may have lost his post, but has been spotted around Jiddah and is none the worse for wear. It is unclear what will happen to those found guilty, if anything; they may succeed on appeal, or their sentences may never be carried out. At any rate, it is impossible to say what transpired, given the opaque nature of the proceedings. It appears that the line drawn under the case has not had the desired effect, begging the question, what did the Saudis expect would happen?

The outcome shines the spotlight all the more on MbS, putting him at the junction of already fraught relations with the Americans. He enjoys unusually good rapport with the president, but Congress does have significant leverage on foreign policy, and of course there is no guarantee that the White House will not have a different occupant next year, one in all probability far less accommodating to the Saudis. Assuming royal influence on the proceedings (since no one really thinks the court was operating in a judicial vacuum), MbS either does not care about the potential impact on relations (unlikely), or is so full of confidence that he believes he can steer the ship of state through any storm. One thing is certain, MbS has placed two bets - one on continuing special (and indulgent) ties with America, and another on his own abilities.

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