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Bullets And Bone Saws: The Dark Side Of Prince Muhammad bin Salman?

do any guardrails remain?

It was only last year that MbS was being feted by business leaders in America on a buoyant tour, accompanied by a media blitz promoted by a dedicated lobbying firm (whose relationship with the Saudis has just been severed). He enjoyed a warm rapport with President Trump and especially his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who all seemed to share similar views on the virtue of a full scale disruption of the status quo. The future looked promising, with the prospect of Western-style big venue entertainment and a dynamic, knowledge-based economy. That vision has now crashed into reality, even if his bond with the Trump administration does not appear to be in jeopardy. Outrage is building over the war in Yemen, which has now turned into a humanitarian catastrophe, and the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar (another MbS-led initiative) has accomplished nothing. While allowing women to drive and the relaxing of other social strictures has been welcomed in the West, it has also become apparent that a vicious crackdown on dissent is occurring alongside any reform.

It seemed bizarre that women activists were being jailed at the same time as they were granted licenses to drive, or that clerics are facing the death penalty at a time when the feared religious police have been stripped of many of their powers, but coming into sharper focus is the realization that it is all stagecraft, a world where certain restrictions are eased and freedoms dispensed, but only on terms allowed from above. Demanding something on one's own is viewed as dissent, and citizen rights are illusory. MbS enjoys being regarded as the face of youthful dynamism, yet the same paternalism remains. The boundaries of this new social compact are still being explored, and the first victims are those who have failed to appreciate the suddenness of the shift, or the violence of its reaction. Society will come to terms; the real question is how, or if, the extended royal family will internalize the change.

By October 20, as part of their investigation into the 'botched rendition', the Saudis had arrested 18 nationals for their purported involvement, and two senior officials had been sacked - deputy intelligence chief Ahmad al-Asiri and Saud al-Qahtani, a senior aide to the crown prince. Obviously someone was going to take the fall, but the careless tossing aside of even close confidants will only underscore the fact that the foremost concern of MbS is self-preservation, at whatever the cost. Already, he had a reputation for ruthlessness - he earned the nickname Abu Rasasa (from the Arabic for bullet) after he mailed a single bullet to a businessman who refused to sell him property, and the locals have now embraced the moniker Prince Bone Saw, from the latest drama. The arrests of royal family members (some of whom are believed to have been tortured to death while in custody) and execution of clerics (previously the bedrock supporting Al Saud legitimacy) only emphasize an approach which makes the term 'disruptive' seem wanting.

It was becoming clear that MbS had little sense (or respect for) the limits of Saudi power, as shown by a recklessness in foreign affairs. But there was at least hope that the boundaries of royal family rule would hold up. The arrest of princes can be explained away by an 'anti-corruption' sweep, and it would not be the first time that family rivals (like the ousted Muhammad bin Nayif, the former crown prince) have been shunted aside in the name of ambition. What will strike fear in the hearts of royals is the vision of a complete rending of the social fabric, with the unstated compact between the family and citizen giving way to one-man authoritarianism, and loyalty being scrubbed of all meaning. The ultimate consequence of the Khashoggi affair will not be diplomatic or even economic, but rather the reshaping of domestic family politics - shut out of the picture, the princes now watch from outside as the world is remade around them.

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