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The 'Dissent' of Prince Ahmad: Bad Blood or Widening Rupture?

leader of the opposition?

Activists responded with glee to the idea that Ahmad had openly and deliberately distanced the family from the policies of the crown prince (who is effectively in charge). Reportedly, his statement to SPA had been "fake", he stood by his original comments, and was even considering self exile. Iranian media, in particular, seized on this idea, and his 'dissent' took on a life of its own. Various Twitter accounts began spreading a hashtag pledging allegiance to the prince - "We pledge allegiance to Ahmad bin Abd al-Aziz as king" - and before long he was considering "not returning home", looking set to become a figurehead for opposition efforts.

In truth, Ahmad would be the obvious choice to lead any push to unseat MbS. Reportedly (the proceedings of the 34-member Allegiance Committee, which decides succession matters, are secret) he was one of only three to vote against the elevation of Muhammad, and his position is understandable. By rights, Ahmad had a secure place in the line of succession, which was established to pass from one brother to the next, by seniority (assuming ability and capacity). It was accepted that the throne's passage would need to change course at some point, as the sons of the Founder (Ibn Saud) died off and the next generation became restless, but Ahmad had a lifetime of government experience and was well-regarded. The 34th son of Ibn Saud, he began his career as far back as 1971 as the Vice Governor of Makkah Region, before moving to the Ministry of Interior, where he served as first Deputy Minister, and then Minister (from 2012). He was there less than six months, however, before being dumped. Ahmad was young enough, too, to help avert the perception that the Kingdom was becoming a gerontocracy of decrepit old men. In addition, he was a full brother of Salman, a fact which should have increased his chances of being held in more favorable regard (full siblings tend to stick together more than half brothers, benefiting from similar patronage networks). He was passed over, however, for the king's favorite son. Though clearly ambitious and sharp-witted, MbS lacks the gravitas that is needed to wield firm control over the family's members, many of whom are extremely powerful, and rich, in their own right. Ahmad would have been the safer choice, and might naturally assume that Salman's decision to install his own son as crown prince had more to do with the establishment of an alternate line of succession than with the broader family interest, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Muhammad's abilities and lack of track record.

This has been a long-standing concern of the royals, since the days of King Saud's abortive attempts to do just that, and immense care and effort has been put into ensuring that it never comes into play. From the time of King Fahd's succession law to Abdallah's bay'ah (Allegiance Committee), various codifications of the principle that no one paternal line should come to dominate have found their way into law and precedent, and yet Salman has seemingly ignored all of it. It was the crown prince's great luck to arrive at the very confluence of a near end of the line for viable candidates for succession among Salman's brothers (due to old age, incapacity or unsuitability), the urgency of shifting leadership abruptly to the next generation, and the pressing need to find a dynamic, relatable figurehead to address the complex issues facing a population whose demographic makeup was trending younger and younger. In one sense, Ahmad was no longer useful; the royals' continuing viability was at stake, and business as usual was itself a risky supposition, given the knowledge that the status quo (arguably seen as corrupt, unresponsive and slow to adapt to societal change) may not have stood the test of time. Some form of relatively abrupt change was inevitable.

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