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The Crown Prince, Canada and Aramco: Shattering The Illusion?

vanity projects?

MbS also undertook an extended tour of the West, where he was feted by world leaders and captains of industry as the 'disruptor' leading the backwards Kingdom into a brave new world. The crown prince seemed to enjoy the accolades, if only as a diversion from troubles at home - the Yemeni campaign continues to drain the budget, state revenues have sunk, the dispute with Qatar (far more consequential than that with Canada) only worsens, and despite Saudi attempts at regional influence (such as the interference in Lebanon's politics), Iran looks to be gaining the upper hand. Yet, despite the supposed loosening of societal strictures, the parallel crackdown on dissent has sent a confusing message. Roundups of clerics in September of 2017, imprisonment of royals and businessmen in November, more arrests of prominent clerics and scholars, and lately a severe clampdown on political activism have cast a shade over positive developments.

The juxtaposition of WWE exhibitions and rap concerts with the roundup of human rights activists and royal critics seems baffling. The lifting of the women's driving ban was headline news around the world; now the focus is on voices of dissent. Besides the case of Badawi (the subject of Canada's tweet which provoked the diplomatic crisis), Israa al-Ghomgham, an advocate for the country's Shiite minority, apparently faces the death penalty, for charges of "attempting to inflame public opinion" and "filming protests and publishing on social media." It is hard to reconcile the image MbS wants to convey to the outside - a progressive, forward-thinking hub of innovation - and the reality which sees clerics such as Safar al-Hawali and Nasir al-Umar jailed for their outspokenness. Crucially, the scholars and thinkers arrested were proponents of the politically-minded Sahwa movement, which is at odds with the royal family (and their supporters among the Islamic community) over the allegiance owed to a monarch. Under the state-sanctioned school of thought, the Al Saud are owed fealty, a belief which legitimizes their rule as guardians of the Holy Places, whilst the Islamic Brotherhood-inspired dissenting view calls for greater political rights, even constitutional monarchy. Intentionally or not, the jailing by MbS of his critics leaves no doubt that such views will not be tolerated. Indeed, despite the outward show of societal reform, the royals have made clear that, if anything, an even more authoritarian rule is in the offing.

The Canada spat provides illustration. Economically, the cutting of ties will have little effect. Diplomatically, however, it finds value as an ostentatious display. Very few nations are in a position to impose economic sanctions on another in any meaningful sense; joining their number becomes a matter of prestige. Much like the proposed IPO, with its impossible valuation, the real purpose was in show. In both cases, real world calculations were ignored, and the matter pressed ahead with one goal in mind - the appearance of being a heavyweight on the world stage. The same considerations were at play in dealing with Qatar, which, in a severe overreaction, needed to be punished for its attempt to challenge Saudi regional influence. So too, the triumphant world tour of MbS was undertaken with an international audience in mind - western-style liberalization would of course play well in Silicon Valley. Domestically, it is another matter.

For all the talk of 'disruption', MbS is not reading from a different playbook. Traditionally, the royal family has dispensed largesse, with the expectation that obedience to the ruler will follow. During the Arab Spring uprisings, King Abdallah warded off trouble by means of huge financial dispensations; with the oil-based economy struggling, MbS has found the carrot of reform equally useful. With the inherent conflict between an open society and continued one-family rule, how he deals with further dissent will be critical.

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