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A Year As Crown Prince: Forward Progress Or Sideways Shift?

challenges from without?

MbS justifies his crackdown on the unquestioned power of the religious establishment by referring to a pre-1979 state of affairs (before the siege of Makkah by extremists, after which King Khalid allowed the clerics unprecedented latitude to enforce the strict Wahhabi interpretation of Islam), when society enjoyed a much greater degree of freedom (although the extent of that openness is greatly exaggerated). He recognizes that a glacial pace of change, which has traditionally been used as a fallback when Saudi's lack of rights is called out) will never bring the country into the modern age, and shock therapy is needed. To that end, the unimaginable (public mixing of the sexes, cinemas and music performances, even women driving) is now happening, bringing excitement and, not coincidentally, enthusiasm and support for MbS and his modernization program. He calculates that the public desire for modernity and western-style freedoms will override opposition from the conservatives. This seems to be the case, as the ending of the ban on women driving met with far less outcry than was expected, for example. Are the religious hardliners ready to be taken on with the same fervor as the social conservatives? Based on the reception of his other reforms, such as limiting the powers of the hay'a (religious enforcers, responsible for public morality), it seems MbS will press forward with a modernization agenda, even at the expense of further alienating those upon whom the royals always assumed they depended for their very legitimacy.

On the other hand, the royals genuinely feel that Iran presents a mortal danger, to the effect that they are hewing closer to Israel (which shares those concerns) despite the risk of outraging the public at home. Meetings have been held in secret with Israeli officials (even while the king reaffirms Saudi's "steadfast" support for the Palestinian cause) and relations with the Jewish state are clearly thawing (allowing Air India flights to and from Tel Aviv to transit Saudi air-space, for example). Clearly, interests are shared (another commonality is keeping the favor of a mercurial Trump administration, which is decidedly pro-Israel and anti-Iran), but MbS also understands the need for regional peace if his larger ambitions are ever to be realized. To that end, he displays genuine frustration with the peace process, opining in April to US magazine The Atlantic that the Israelis "have the right to have their own land", a statement that is anathema to a domestic audience. Nevertheless, he seems ready to jettison decades of accepted practice to move things along, a desire shared by the Americans, who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem in order to take the issue off the table and accelerate the process.

Like President Trump, MbS sees himself as a disruptor and is not afraid to cast aside established practice. In the case of domestic politics, MbS has overturned both custom and tradition, cementing his status as the only one in power who really matters. Several major crackdowns, one in September 2017 against influential clerics and intellectuals, and then again in November when 380 royals, ministers and business elite were arrested and held at Riyadh's Ritz Carlton, made clear what the future would hold. Most of the November detainees were released after agreeing to significant financial settlements, but several princes remain in prison, have disappeared, or like the former crown prince Muhammad bin Nayif, are held under house arrest. Little in the way of royal family opposition remains, and other critics are cowed or silenced. In fact, the crackdown continues, with rights activists finding themselves detained even on the eve of the driving ban being lifted. Real challenge from within now seems inconceivable; the question is whether MbS will defeat himself by over-extension and an excess of ambition. Having alienated the family, he can only rely on himself, and the vagaries of fortune.

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