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A Palace Conflicted: Royal Family Or One-Man Rule?

by Senior Analyst Talal Kapoor

Confusion erupted on April 21 when bursts of gunfire were heard outside the royal compound in the Khozama district of Riyadh, and social media came alive with unconfirmed reports of a coup attempt. "Heavy" weapons fire was said to have forced King Salman from his palace into a bunker on a nearby airbase, and speculation turned to a possible overthrow of the ruling family. As it turned out, security forces had shot down a small, recreational drone that was hovering too close to the king's palace, and neither he nor the crown prince were anywhere nearby, or in danger. The episode demonstrates, though, how the Kingdom rests on a knife's edge. The possibility of a coup seems all too believable, given the present circumstances.

Despite the popularity of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (known as MbS), no one doubts that a considerable slice of the royal family would like nothing better than for him to disappear. Not only has he thrown into disarray any and all succession plans, but his vision threatens to upend the social compact upon which the Al Saud depends for its long range viability. Though the chances of an armed uprising by disaffected princes (possibly with the help of segments of the military) remain remote, the readiness of so many to entertain the idea of a coup taking place is recognition that the royal family is near breaking point. A successful tour abroad notwithstanding, MbS is still far from achieving his mission.

The past few decades have been one of relative tranquility for the royal family domestically, aside from the usual jostling for advantage inherent in any political system. The Kingdom's founder Ibn Saud had set out a pattern to be followed which would ensure that each of his (capable) sons would rule in turn, hoping to avoid a fractious civil war among competing family centres. The memory of his own father Abd al-Rahman's battle with his brothers Muhammad, Abdallah and Saud and the destruction those years of strife in the later part of the nineteenth century had left in their wake still haunted the now scattered and displaced family at the time Ibn Saud set out on his quest to restore Al Saud honor, and he feared that his two eldest, Saud and Faysal (who each went on to rule in succession) would vie for power rather than work together. The fledgling state would falter as personal rivalries superseded the ambitious project just getting underway. In fact, the history of the family going back almost to the inception of what could be called an 'amirate' was one of bloody rivalry, opportunism and treachery. When peace prevailed, it was due to lack of resources to challenge the ruler (in the form of tribal allies, a client network and wealth or advantage to offer for the risk of support) rather than any sense of deference owed. Ambitious princes simply recognized that they needed to either play along or bide their time; it was a given that challenge would come if opportunity presented. As a student of the prevailing climate, Ibn Saud knew that his sons would take it for granted that the throne was theirs for the taking, so long as they could attract sufficient support to mount their bid.

The founder also feared that beyond a near-term affray, the consequences of a powerful ruler concentrating the state in the hands of his own offspring, and excluding the larger (and expanding) royal family, could be just as destructive. It was one thing for a bedouin amir to overthrow a cousin in a tribal setting, another for princes controlling the levers of power in a modern bureaucratic state to war against one another. Indeed, his sons would go on to manage the key portfolios of Defense, Interior, and the National Guard, among others. Ironically, however, the arrangement acted as a kind of detente, locking into place a structure of competing but offsetting power centres that ensured that no single prince could overcome his sibling rivals outside of a formalized, quasi-legal arrangement.

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