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The Disaffected Princes: Danger From Within?

a dangerous gambit?

Traditionally, the greatest threat to Al Saud rule has come from an overzealous religiosity. Though the alliance with austere clerics who gave their blessing to the family enterprise to retake the Arabian peninsula was remarkably successful, the same dynamic periodically threw up challenges to royal rule. The religiously motivated either embarked on their own campaigns in defiance of their secular leader (in which case they were ruthlessly suppressed, as the Ikhwan in the 1920's), or insisted on having nearly unlimited power over social mores (as in the 1980's). More recently, King Salman (together with his son, the crown prince), has succeeded in tamping down the outsized influence of the clerics. The powers of the religious enforcers (the hay'a) have been sharply curtailed, and what was previously unthinkable - like unrelated men and women dining together, or attending a public musical event - has started to be normalised. As part of Muhammad's vision, social strictures will be loosened, providing avenues for entertainment and a steam valve for a youthful population whose outlets were often confined to dangerous stunt driving. His gamble is that social liberalisation will in some sense make up for the loss of economic dependency (with his soaring popularity as a side benefit).

The latest gambit, allowing women to drive, has divided opinion, and left conservatives dismayed. Though it may take some time to absorb the impact of the change, Muhammad needed a bold move to hammer home the new reality. The clerics, who often veer perilously close to implying the royals are insufficiently religious to be the rightful custodians of Islam's holy places, have been forced to confront the limitations of their own power. Together with a clean sweep of any who did not sufficiently toe the line, the Al Saud have made clear that they consider that flank to be walled off.

The other front, a challenge from the liberal secularists, is taken less seriously, since they have always been marginalised, with little organisation. Nonetheless, Muhammad let it be known that he would not tolerate dissent from that direction either, even from those nominally close to the royal family itself. At the same time, a strategy of co-optation is being applied, seizing the initiative from those who criticize the Kingdom for moving too slowly. Whether a more liberal society takes shape in the wake of reform remains to be seen, though conservatives may yet push back in force.

The unacknowledged danger lurking in the background is the breakdown of family consensus. Previously, no king was truly authoritarian, as he had to contend with the broader family body. The unstated rule was that a range of considerations and viewpoints had to be taken into account, to fully represent the interests of each power center (with some given more weight than others). This arrangement became less important in later years, as the influence of the major blocs waned, and authority became more centralised, but the current situation is unprecedented. Virtually no account is given to anyone, within or outside the royal family. Partly, this is a result of the natural decline of competing power centers, but is largely the outcome of Salman's drive to consolidate control in the hands of his son. Inevitably, this has had the consequence of alienating many of the princes, who now feel left out of the process and disregarded. Will their grievances come back to haunt Muhammad? In the event he stumbles, it is hard to see many coming to his aid. More likely, disgruntled royals will circle round, waiting to pounce when the time is right. There are many princes who remain powerful in their own right, and it is inconceivable that they will allow royal rule to collapse in the face of a crisis. Muhammad, as strong as he is, may not yet have a strong enough hand, and despite speculation over the king's abdication, Salman may be forced to stay on a while longer.

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